Will long-term care insurance solve all the client's long-term care needs?
In short, no.
Besides the issue that less than half of the United States population is not insurable at all or at standard rates, and besides the issue that certain long-term care needs are not covered by long-term care insurance (such as only needing help with one Activity of Daily Living), this blog discusses the question of whether the purchase of long-term care insurance helps or hurts your client.
A few background comments: It is safe to say that the long-term care insurance industry is in
a state of transition. Many companies
have stopped writing new policies. Most companies
that have blocks of in-force business have raised, and continue to raise
premiums on previously issued blocks of business. One major writer of long-term care insurance
is now in liquidation due to their liabilities greatly exceeding their assets,
and their policies have been taken over by State Guaranty
Associations.
The companies that continue to issue policies have, in response to
low market interest rates, lower lapsation of policies than expected and other
factors have tightened underwriting requirements, raised prices and introduced
prices that differ by gender. On the
positive side, helped in part by tax law changes, new forms of long-term care
coverage have emerged, such as long-term care riders on life insurance
policies.
Much discussion and spirited debate over the pros and cons of
long-term care insurance has taken place.
But with all this, there is the critical question I alluded to earlier and until now has yet to be answered: How does the purchase of long-term care
insurance affect the probability of a retiree successfully meeting the
all-important retirement goal of not outliving assets? The answer is coming in an article
(I’ll let you know where it will be published) that investigates this issue in
detail and a future blog on how you can get the answer for your clients. For now, I’ll just
summarize the results for a hypothetical male aged 65 who is insurable and has
a portfolio of $600,000 (yes, asset portfolio size matters in this analysis,
and matters even more in the whole analysis of retiree long-term care costs).
The short answer is - it's complicated!:
The purchase of long-term care insurance reduces the probability
of this sample retiree successfully meeting the all-important retirement goal
of not outliving assets. But the amount
of reduction is small. Typically, if the
chance of success is, say, 87% without the long-term care insurance, the
chances reduce to 82%. However, there
are advantages to the purchase of long-term care for this sample retiree that
may outweigh this calculation:
1.
An important measure of
whether the purchase is appropriate is the possible range of costs the retiree
may incur for the possible long-term care needs over the retiree’s lifetime. There is about an 80% chance that the present
value of these costs will be higher if
the long-term care insurance policy is purchased (due to the premium payments,
of course). However, the difference in the
present value (compared to not purchasing the insurance) is relatively
small. For the 20% of the time that the
present value is smaller with the purchase, the difference in that present
value is potentially huge. Another way
to state this is that if the client buys the insurance, he accepts a relatively
small additional cost for long-term care costs over his lifetime, but protects
against higher, potentially catastrophic long-term care costs (which really is
what insurance is all about).
2.
If and when long-term care
is needed, the insurance company can send someone out to visit the client, and help
with assessing the need for long-term care services and with pointing the
client in the right direction. This is a
great service for the client at a very stressful time.
3.
In certain locations in the
United States, an assisted living facility may review the client’s financial
situation before admittance. This review
may take time and add stress. If the
client has a policy, the review is often waived.
Note that this short answer
is only for the hypothetical case mentioned above. Different retiree profiles lead to possibly
different conclusions. It is necessary to tailor this analysis to the specifics of your client!